1.1 Context

In the early 1990's the ODA bilateral programme was disbursing over a billion pounds annually of which about 10% was classified as educational aid. Educational aid is therefore a major component of British assistance to development, particularly when it is remembered that these figures exclude multi-lateral contributions and educational aspects of projects predominantly located in other sectors.

The significance of human resource development supported by education and training is manifest. It contributes to medium term institution building, is an essential complement to many investments in physical infrastructure, and is an integral part of any definition of development that sees access to educational services of appropriate quality as a basic human right. In order to improve the planning of educational assistance it is necessary to take a view on some of the major factors that will shape educational development over the next decade. These are discussed below after an introduction to some recent trends which map the terrain over which these factors operate.

The social and economic environment in which development is taking place has been changing rapidly. The 1980's have been characterised by increased differentiation between developing countries in their human development status. The experience of the last three decades has been used by UNDP to classify countries into three groups those where sustained human development has taken place (e.g. Botswana, Costa Rica, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Shri Lanka), those where human development has been disrupted (e.g. Chile, China, Colombia, Jamaica, Kenya and Zimbabwe), and those where opportunities for human development have been missed (e.g. Brazil, Nigeria and Pakistan) (UNDP 1990:42). This differentiation is the result of the interaction of a wide range of factors which include political instability, economic mismanagement, widespread recession, falling commodity prices, rising interest rates and levels of indebtedness, and increased distributional skews.

Global patterns of investment in education are complex and there are many choices in how to analyse them. UNESCO data yields Table 1 which shows how public expenditure as a proportion of GNP has been changing.

Table 1. Public Expenditure on Education 19-70-88

	Percentage of GNP
	1975	1980	1985	1988
World Total	5.8	5.5	5.6	5.5
Developing countries	3.6	3.8	4.0	4.1
Sub-Saharan Africa	3.8	4.9	4.3	4.5
Arab States	5.9	4.4	6.0	6.4
Latin America and Caribbean	3.6	3.9	4.0	4.4
East Asia and Oceania	2.3	2.7	3.2	2.9
South Asia	3.0	4.0	3.4	3.6
LDCs	2.6	3.1	3.3	3.3
Developed Countries	6.4	6.0	6.0	5.8

Source: UNESCO 1991:36 Table 2.9

This indicates that in general proportional allocations averaged across regions have remained fairly stable. Those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which includes a disproportionate number of countries where GNP growth has been minimal, experienced a significant decline in the mid 1980's but there has been some subsequent recovery. Alongside this pattern the proportion of the national budget allocated to education in many developing countries appears to have been falling. Two recent analyses indicate that the proportions of central government expenditure allocated to education in the developing countries on which there is data (about 35), show a fall in more than twice as many cases as there have been increases over the period 1972-1982 and 1972 - 1986 (Lewin 1987:56, Hallak 1990:27). The proportions allocated to health have also declined more often than they have increased. In countries with primary gross enrolment ratios (GERs) below 90 in 1986 more than half (13 out of 21) experienced a decline in the proportion of central government expenditure on education over the last five years on which there were data (Colclough with Lewin Table 2.1 1993) Eight of these countries are in Sub Saharan Africa.

If this partial picture is complemented by data on expenditure per student some finer resolution of the consequences of the changed climate for educational investment becomes possible. Table 2 shows expenditures in US$ and in units of GNP per capita in the main regions.

Table 2: Public Current Expenditure per Pupil by Level of Education 197088.

	Year	All levels		First Level		Second level		1 st & 2 nd Levels		Third level
		US$	Units	US$	Units	US$	Units	US$	Units	US$	Units
All developing countries [72]	1975	49	0.15					33	0.10
	1980	106	0.17					73	0.12
	1998	129	0.18					93	0.13
Sub-Saharan Africa [26]	1975	101	0.44	49	0.21	251	1.09	75	0.33	2675	10.7
	1980	133	0.32	70	0.17	296	0.72	101	0.24	3521	8.5
	1988	89	0.31	50	0.17	175	0.61	70	0.24	1549	5.4
Arab States[11]	1975	140	0.21					105	0.16	633	0.9
	1980	227	0.16					174	0.13	1019	0.7
	1988	313	0.19					240	0.15	1467	0.9
Latin America Caribbean[25]	1975	166	0.15	81	0.07	196	0.18	100	0.09	694	0.6
	1980	328	0.14	164	0.07	326	0.14	195	0.09	1286	0.6
	1988	293	0.15	163	0.09	246	0.13	180	0.09	863	0.5
East Asia Oceania [8]	1975	19	0.09					17	0.08	353	1.6
	1980	46	0.11					36	0.09	538	1.3
	1988	73	0.13	43	0.08	89	0.16	55	0.10	446	0.8
South Asia [5]	1975	32	0.17	17	0.09	34	0.18	21	0.11	116	0.6
	1980	83	0.24	50	0.15	96	0.28	63	0.19	195	0.6
	1988	110	0.19	69	0.12	123	0.21	86	0.15	445	0.8
LCDs [19]	1975	34	0.23	18	0.12	55	0.38	25	0.17	513	3.5
	1980	50	0.24	26	0.13	90	0.44	36	0.18	858	4.2
	1988	45	0.22	25	0.12	86	0.43	35	0.17	422	2.1
Developed Countries [31]	1975	1098	0.24					834	0.18	2637	0.6
	1980	1862	0.23					1417	0.18	4019	0.5
	1988	2888	0 24					1983	0.16	6520	0.5

Note: Units refer to units of GNP per capita; numbers in parentheses in column 1 refer to the number of countries.

Source: UNESCO 1991:98 Table r9.

Sub-Saharan African countries have seen total expenditure per pupil drop by fully one third in US$ terms between 1980 and 1988, with smaller declines in Latin America and the Caribbean (11%). In other regions expenditure per pupil in US$ has increased - by as much as 38% in the Arab countries, and by 55% in the developed countries over the same period. A contrasting picture emerges if expenditure is accounted for in units based on GNP per capita. These figures indicate that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa allocate greater proportions of GNP per capita to education than is the case in other regions. The relative economic burden of increasing access to education in these countries is therefore greater than elsewhere since a larger proportion of GNP has to be allocated to enrol additional students. This is a particularly acute issue in those African countries where GNP growth has been sluggish or negative.

The most recent figures suggest that gross enrolment rates (GERs) at the first level have fallen in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole from 77% in 1980, to 71% in 1985 and to 67% in 1990. In all other regions GERs have increased, though the rate of increase slowed in the second part of the last decade. Regional GERs also remained below 100 in the Arab States and in South Asia. GERs actually declined in 16 of the 37 countries which had GERs of less than 90 in 1986 over the six year period 1980-86 (Colclough with Lewin 1993: Table 2.1). Twelve of these countries were in Sub-Saharan Africa. Analysis of enrolment growth by level shows a slowing at all levels in all regions during the 1980's, a consistent tendency for growth rates to be higher at secondary and tertiary, and again Sub-Saharan Africa experiencing some of the greatest declines in growth (Table 3). Estimates of the grade 4 survival rates of a cohort entering grade 1 in 1988 indicate that 67% survive in Sub-Saharan Africa, 91% in the Arab States, 78% in East Asia and Oceania, 55% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 63% in South Asia (UNESCO 1991:31). This illustrates that large numbers fail to complete four grades even in those regions where mean GERs for primary exceed 100. GERs, it should be remembered, underestimate net enrolment rates, sometimes very substantially. Where repetition is high and overage entry common the differences may be 20% or more suggesting that internal efficiency is low and that many remain unschooled.

Disparities in enrolment rates between girls and boys remain striking. In Sub-Saharan Africa in 1990 there were 23% more boys than girls at the first level, 35% more at the second level, 180% more at the third level. The Arab States (24%, 34%, 64%) and South Asia (34%, 70%, 128%) had similar patterns (UNESCO 1991:53, Table 3.2). All but one of the countries with a GER of less than 90 in 1986 had smaller female enrolments at the first level, with an unweighted average value of 68% of male enrolment (Colclough with Lewin 1993: Table 2.1). The weighted mean for all low income countries for females as a percentage of total enrolments is 43% (Lockheed and Verspoor 1990:169).

Table 3 Enrolment Growth Rates by Level of Education 197088 (Percentages) and GER (First Level)

	Years	First	Second	Third	GER
	Level	Level	Level	Level 1
All Developing Countries	1970-5	5.3	7.7	11.9	92.8
	1975-80	2.2	5.7	7.1	94.9
	1980-88	1.1	3.1	4.5	98.1
Sub Saharan Africa	1970-5	7.4	14.3	13.3	58.1
	1975-80	9.4	14.4	14.0	77.1
	1980-88	1.8	4.3	8.1	66.7
Arab States	1970-5	5.7	10.2	15.1	73.1
	1975-80	4.4	8.8	10.4	79.9
	1980-88	4.0	5.9	5.6	83.4
Latin America Caribbean	1970-5	5.1	3.4	17.3	97.0
	1975-80	2.9	6.9	6.0	104.8
	1980-88	1.5	3.7	4.7	109.3
Eastern Asia Oceania	1970-5	6.9	11.7	11.4	113.2
	1975-80	0.6	5.2	15.5	109.7
	1980-88	0.8	0.7	7.3	119.9
South Asia	1970-5	3.6	4.6	9.5	75.8
	1975-80	2.2	4.6	3.5	77.0
	1980-88	3.5	6.0	1.1	88.4
Least Developed Countries	1970-5	7.7	8.3	8.3
	1975-80	5.4	5.0	11.1
	1980-88	3.5	4.5	6.8

Note First level GERs are for 1975, 1980 and 1990 (projected).
Source: UNESCO 1991 Tables 2.4, 2.5)

Literacy rates have been increasing and in most developing countries literacy amongst 15-19 year olds is greater than in the adult population as a whole suggesting this trend will continue. However in Sub Saharan Africa (47%), the Arab States (51%) and South Asia (46%) adult literacy is still low. Illiteracy is concentrated amongst women - in the least developed countries adult literacy rates for women are 28% compared to 51% for men (UNESCO 1991:26). India and China account for about 53% of adult illiterates and about 21% of the remaining illiterates are concentrated in eight developing countries. Current projections suggest that the absolute number of adult illiterates is likely to fall but by only about 1 % by the end of the century (UNESCO 1991:25).

The trends selectively reviewed above present donors with a sharply differing set of education and development issues in different countries. In some regions notably Sub-Saharan Africa - and in particular countries dispersed across the regions, a stagnation or decline has occurred in enrolment ratios at primary level and proportions of GNP and of the national budget allocated to education have fallen. In many of these cases there are other signs of distress. Individual examples are not difficult to find where salaries of teachers have diminished substantially in real terms below levels necessary to provide a livelihood, non-salary expenditure has been squeezed to derisory levels, and evidence from achievement studies suggests that standards have declined. By contrast, many countries which have not suffered economic deprivation have been able to consolidate first level enrolment gains, often to near universal levels, and direct concerted attention towards other aspects of educational improvement, most notably increasing achievement and improving quality at primary and subsequent levels.